Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
